4HF

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Forecasts

Predicted prices at 1, 2, and 3 months ahead — each horizon uses the model that tested best AT that horizon on that commodity, run live over today's FRED data. Toggle the horizon to compare.

Forecast horizon:
Forecast summary
Predicted price and expected move over the next 1 month. Each commodity's forecast uses the model that tested best at this horizon.
Benchmark1 month predictedImpacted
Feed Additives & Forage · FRED / BLS PPI (alfalfa hay)
$358.81-4.7%Moving avg· 6.3%
Protein · FRED / IMF (global lamb)
$172.2+2.1%Momentum-drift + Sentiment· 2.6%
Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · FRED / IMF (global barley, proxy)
$2.63-0.4%Momentum-drift· 2.9%· prod
Protein · FRED / IMF (global poultry, quarterly)
$1.73+3.0%Naive (drift) + Sentiment + Calendar· 6.8%
Protein · FRED / IMF (global poultry, proxy)
$3.68+0.0%Momentum-drift· 1.4%· prod
Protein · FRED / BLS PPI (butter proxy)
$117.12-1.6%Momentum-drift· 7.4%· prod
Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · FRED / IMF (global maize, proxy)
$4.9-1.4%Momentum-drift· 3.2%· prod
Protein · FRED / BLS PPI (dairy proxy)
$238.98+0.3%Auto-ARIMA· 1.1%
Protein · FRED / BLS PPI (eggs proxy)
$84.1+0.9%Moving avg· 24.6%
Protein · FRED / IMF (global swine, proxy)
$0.92+2.2%Auto-ARIMA + Sentiment· 4.3%
Protein · FRED / IMF (global beef, proxy)
$3.46+1.2%Naive (drift) + Sentiment· 1.3%
Protein · FRED / BLS PPI (skim milk proxy)
$406.61+0.4%Naive (drift) + Sentiment + Calendar· 2.1%
Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · FRED / IMF (global soybean meal, proxy)
$292.33-1.3%Momentum-drift + Sentiment· 5.8%
Feed Additives & Forage · FRED / BLS PPI (urea proxy)
$180.58+2.2%Momentum-drift + Sentiment· 2.6%
Fruits, Vegetables & Juices · FRED / BLS PPI (fresh vegetables)
$401.06+10.3%Holt-Winters + Sentiment· 14.5%

Featured outlook · 1 month

FRED / BLS PPI (alfalfa hay) · Index · Feed Additives & Forage · 1 month $358.81 (-4.7%) · Moving avg · 6.3% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global lamb) · USD/kg · Protein · 1 month $172.2 (+2.1%) · Momentum-drift + Sentiment · 2.6% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global barley, proxy) · USD/bu · Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · 1 month $2.63 (-0.4%) · Momentum-drift · 2.9% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global poultry, quarterly) · USD/lb · Protein · 1 month $1.73 (+3.0%) · Naive (drift) + Sentiment + Calendar · 6.8% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global poultry, proxy) · USD/kg · Protein · 1 month $3.68 (+0.0%) · Momentum-drift · 1.4% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (butter proxy) · Index · Protein · 1 month $117.12 (-1.6%) · Momentum-drift · 7.4% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global maize, proxy) · USD/bu · Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · 1 month $4.9 (-1.4%) · Momentum-drift · 3.2% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (dairy proxy) · Index · Protein · 1 month $238.98 (+0.3%) · Auto-ARIMA · 1.1% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (eggs proxy) · Index · Protein · 1 month $84.1 (+0.9%) · Moving avg · 24.6% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global swine, proxy) · USD/lb · Protein · 1 month $0.92 (+2.2%) · Auto-ARIMA + Sentiment · 4.3% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global beef, proxy) · USD/lb · Protein · 1 month $3.46 (+1.2%) · Naive (drift) + Sentiment · 1.3% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (skim milk proxy) · Index · Protein · 1 month $406.61 (+0.4%) · Naive (drift) + Sentiment + Calendar · 2.1% MAPE
FRED / IMF (global soybean meal, proxy) · USD/mt · Grains, Oilseeds & Fats · 1 month $292.33 (-1.3%) · Momentum-drift + Sentiment · 5.8% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (urea proxy) · Index · Feed Additives & Forage · 1 month $180.58 (+2.2%) · Momentum-drift + Sentiment · 2.6% MAPE
FRED / BLS PPI (fresh vegetables) · Index · Fruits, Vegetables & Juices · 1 month $401.06 (+10.3%) · Holt-Winters + Sentiment · 14.5% MAPE